"We are beginning to see a long end game for one of the great economic eras in world history. But we're also beginning to glimpse the emergence of a new economic paradigm so different than anything that we have ever known."
"To understand the nature of this crisis and the opportunity that is now unfolding, we need to grasp how the great economic changes in the history occur."
"When we look at all the economic paradigm shift in history, they share a common denominator. At a particular moment in time, three defining technologies emerge and converge. To create what we call in engineering, a general technology platform. A new infrastructure for changing the way we organize economic with each other in the planet we live in. What are those three defining technologies: new communication technologies (to more efficiently manage economic activity), new sources of energy (to more efficiently power economic activity), new modes of transportation logistics (to more efficiently move economic activity). [...] From an anthropological point of view, it's as simple as that."
"The second industrial revolution took us through the 20th Century and it peaked in July of 2008. If you go back and remember that month, crude oil hit a record of 147 dollars a barrel, on world markets, and when that happened every one stayed home, because all the prices for everything we buy were prohibitively high because everything is pegged to fossil fuels."
"This whole first and second industrial revolution is powered by the carbon deposits ofhe previous period of history. We had the bronze age, the iron age. When future generations look back on us they and at the geological record, they will see the carbon people."
"We are now [2015] at the beginning, not just of a great recession, but a long sunset for a second industrial revolution based on centralized telecommunications depending on fossil-fuel energies, and those energies are used to power an internal combustion engine road in rail system. What I would say to you this afternoon, and I say this to every government that I deal with, 'as long as you are still practicing your economic activity on a second industrial revolution platform, based on centralized telecommunications, fossil-fuel, nuclear power, and internal combustion railing road, there is not a single country in the world that is going to move their economy forward from here on. Not a single country.' You can put in austerity and market and labor reforms and all the rest [...] that's why productivity has been stalled for 20 years."
"We are seeing the emergence of three Internets: communication internet, renewable energy internet, automated transport internet, to rethink how we manage power and move economic activity across the value chains. These three Internets are the kernel of the new operating platform called the Internet of things. The Internet of things is not just about big data, broadband and wi-fi. [min 9:38]"
"We're hearing a lot about the sharing economy, everyday, and we're becoming engaged in it. Capitalism is giving birth. This is the little prodigy of Capitalism. This little baby is an important event. Now Capitalism is going to have to nurture this sharing economy, let it grow, let it mature, let it find it's own identity, but if you're a parent you know your child transforms you too. In this case, the sharing economy is going to utterly transform Capitalism."
"We have already seen the impact of what digitalization and communication has done to give us a near zero marginal cost economy. [...] We, now, have 3 billion people on the Internet of things and everyone of them, now, has been a prossumer. We're still sellers, we're still buyers, we're still owners, we're still users, but now we're prossumers. And that is everyone of us at one time or another has produced or shared music or Youtube videos or news blogs or social media or knowledge on Wikipedia or taken massive open online courses, and that's all near zero marginal cost. If you create a video, open source, and whether you send it to one person or a billion people it's the same cost, near zero, the fixed costs are low, the marginal costs near zero. Some of the biggest vertically integrated industries in the 20th Century have been disrupted. The music industry is a shadow of itself. Television... The average millenium in my country is watching 20 minutes of broadcast TV a week. Why do they need that? They're producing and sharing Youtube videos with each other. Newspapers and magazines have gone out of business, they're desperately trying to create blogs... Book publishing... We're taking a hit. My book was out on Piratebay before it was published by my publisher and it even ranked it before Amazon! They've got a hand at it, these kids! They're really good! More power to them." [+/– min 17:10]
The democratization of entertainment, news, knowledge... An amazing thing!
Now we are all players.
A solar watt cost 78 dollars to generate (fixed cost), in 1978. You know what it is today? One watt? 36 cents.
The Sun is not sending a bill. The wind is not charging you. The geothermal heat is not sending you an invoice.
[+/– min 25:00] So what's the role of the power company? What's going to happen is electricity cooperatives around the world will produce the energy locally, share it out in energy Internets, send it back to the power companies, let them run the new energy Internet. They can be the Googles, the Facebooks, the Twitters... And the way they'll make money is selling less and less electricity. They will set up partnerships with thousands of institutions and neighbor associations, home owners, bussinesses, and they will help you manage the big data on your value chain. On the communication, energy and transport Internet so that they will help you with your analytics and algorithms so that you can dramatically increase your efficiencies, reduce your marginal cost and, then, you will share your productivity gains back with the power company. It's called performance contracting."
"Millions of people are, now, car sharing. They don't want ownership. They want mobility. Car ownership is going to die out in the next 25 years. They want acess to mobility in automated networks. Car ownership is an old idea. And what has made this possible is GPS guidance. For every car shared, 15 cars are eliminated from production. This is going to disrupt the auto industry, because we have build the whole global economy on the automobile."
"There's a billion of cars, buses and trucks in the world. Choking us in traffic, wasting our lives and they're the number 3 cause of climate change. Number 1: buildings, and we're turning them into micro power plants. We're putting the green electricity on them. By the way, anyone knows what the number 2 cause of climate change is? It's cattle and meat production and consumption and even Al Gore doesn't want to talk about it, because he doesn't want to offend anyone, which makes us wonder how serious we are about this."
"The young people are 3D printing. They are infofacturing not manufacturing, and they're all using open source software. So it's free. Because they realize that if they share together with crowd sourcing, they're going to learn a lot. If someone is going to hold on to their little property, so what? They're left behind. They can't catch up with crowd sourcing. And they're using garbage for their filament, at zero marginal cost."
"The first printed car is out. It's called the Strati."
"President Obama wants every school to have a 3D printer, which is a laugh, because in 10 or 15 years every kid is going to come to school, every where in the world, and in a little nap sack they're going to have a little iPhone for $25, and on the other part of their nap sack they're going to have a little startup printer for $25, and they're going to start collecting the garbage around the school site and they're going to Skype in global classrooms millions of them and they're going to become a savvy in printing out physical goods and services at near zero marginal cost, as their millennial parents became savvy at developing software from Napster to Newsbox."
"The best way to understand this revolution is toys." [+/– min 36]
"Aggregate energy efficiency is the ratio of potential to useful work. There's a dirty little secret in economics, which is: 'What is the nature of productivity?' We used to say, better machines, better workers. Robert Solow, Nobel prize in economics let the little secret out. He said we got a problem. When we take every year in the industrial revolution, better machines and better workers only account for 14% of the productivity. Where's the other 86%? Don't know. Are you amazed that the economist didn't know? The reason they didn't know is a little esoteric. It's that classical economics is based on Newton's physics as a metaphor, because that's when Newton was alive, they all wanted to be like Newton. So for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Adam Smith came out with the invisible buy and supply. He borrowed the metaphor. A body in motion stays in motion. Baptiste Say came up with the idea that supply generates demand which stimulates supply... Unless disrupted by an outside force. The only problem of pending all of economics based on Newton's physics is that Newton's physics has nothing to do with economics. That is why the system is starting to unravel. Economics is based on the laws of thermodynamics." [+/– min 40]
"This is the next stage of the European journey. To create the most competitive capitalist market in the world and actually nurture a sharing economy."
"We're seeing already the migration of employment. It's migrating from more and more automated work force to the social economy. But not for profit sector, because that where we create social capital. You need humans. Healthcare, education, environment, taking care of the babies, senior citizens, cultural. It's the more expansive way to use the human mind mind because it's about humans engaging humans. 52 million people are payed for fees for services already in this sector and it's 10% of the employment in the U.S. It's Higher in Germany. And this sector employing is groing much quicker than the capitalist market. So we're going to be able to free up successive generations for more creative task of creating our social capital and getting on with the journey of what we are about in this planet. Does anyone think that human beings are going to have to be doing all this mindless work in 50 years if we get any of this right? I hope not."
"The reason I wrote this book, even though there's only a few pages in the book on it, is what I believe is the only shot we've got of, maybe, reducing our ecological footprint in time to address climate change. I got it wrong for 40 years. I underestimated the speed of the feedback loops and we are terrified. I don't know how to say this to a parent. You should be terrified. But we are going on in 'business as usual'. And here is the terrifying thing about climate change, that no one ever explains, it changes the water cycle of the Earth. That's what this is about." [+/– min 48]
"You know that 99% of all forms of life that have been on this Earth have come and gone? What does this have to do with an Internet of things platform and a zero marginal cost society? It's the ultimate method of reducing the ecological footprint."
"If we can have analytics and apps and programs every day, all day long, in our value chains, monitoring and helping us increase our efficiencies, it means we're extracting less of the Earths resources and optimizing it's use. That's the great wonder of this technology."
"Share the vehicles, share the clothes, share the homes."
"Eurasia is the largest land mass in the world. Contiguous. It represents two thirds of the human race and 29% of the wealth in the planet. There has been a tradition of trade across Eurasia for a thousand years. Independently, both the EU and China are moving in the respective political domains to lay out an 'Internet of things' platform for a third industrial revolution."
"We now know, in neurobiology, in our neural circuitry designed to express empathic distress. A spider goes up your arm. I'm watching. I'll think it's going up my arm. Not my brain. My neural circuitry creeps out! If we look at the big sweep in history we see the evolution of empathic consciousness accompany our great changes in the way we manage power and move in economic activity."
"The digital revolution is biosphere consciousness."
"What limits democracy is secrecy and control, from the top down."
"I see the generational shift in two ways: how we define freedom and how we define power. My generations, World War II and Baby Boomers after us, all the way back, we always believed freedom is the ability to be an autonomous agent. To be self-sufficient. Not be holding on others. that's how we accumulate wealth so that we can be our own sovereign. That was a way to fight off the Monarchy so that we weren't dependent on it. Right? For a young person, in a digital generation, they see freedom not as exclusivity and autonomy. For them, freedom is inclusivity and relationships. For them, autonomy is death. For them, freedom is the ability to be included in access to more and more networks where they can share their talents with eachother. It's a totally different idea about freedom. And power? My generation absolutely believes power pyramidal. End of story. There's no such thing as powerful as a pyramid. Apparently, the younger generation doesn't believe that because they believe power is lateral. By being engaged in a distributive collaborative transparent setting, they actually increase the power by sharing it in a pear to pear production network."
"When a young person looks at power, and they judge a government or a political party or a school system or a business, they ask: 'Is the institutional behavior centralized, patriarchal, top down, proprietary and closed, or is the institutional behavior distributive, collaborative, transparent and laterally scaled? So we are really beginning to see different definitions, culturally of what we believe is a human being's role in relationship to our fellow human being in the planet we live in. This is good news."
The Zero Marginal Cost Society
FOET
Showing posts with label Negócios. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Negócios. Show all posts
The end of the economic era as we know it / O novo paradigma da economia
Pensar fora da caixa / Crowd sourcing
Quem teve a ideia foi Alpheus Bingham.
A especialização (e consequente 'deformação profissional') é limitativa.
Há que pensar fora da caixa e ouvir quem não sabe...
... e ainda:
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