Showing posts with label Frederick Mosteller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Frederick Mosteller. Show all posts

still, the thinking eye




If you really want to learn how to study human behavior go to a school of public health. [...] It is all chance and noise. Which suggests you better double replicate every big data finding and then do a randomized controlled experiment to find out if it's right. They have discovered that 60% to 80% of all medical findings are false. They have learned that the gold standard of learning about human beings is the randomized experiment. [...] The main inference that fools make about statistics, is that statistics lie. Frederick Mosteller, the great Harvard statistician, said, "It is easy to lie with statistics, but easier to lie without them."

"Finally, self awareness about what we see. Most medieval castles were made of wood. We think most were made of stone because of survivor bias. The thinking eye asks: 'How do they know that?', 'How do I know that?' and 'How does what I see, come to be seen by me?', 'How did this material get to me?'. For what they show us is what we see. What we find is what we see. What we see is what we see. And what we see may not contain the answer. You know, if we can come to see through the veil of words that cloud our minds, perhaps we can come to realize that the meaning of life is seeing, and that to see well is to live well."